Run or Schedule a Prediction

From the Predict page, you can:

  • Run and schedule predictions.

  • Delete scheduled prediction runs.

  • View prediction status.

  • View the collection lag for the target data set.

  • Create a new snapshot.

When you run a new prediction, the XperiFlow engine uses the forecast range established on the Forecast page of the Configure section to generate a forecast for each target using the deployed models. This prediction is made from the date of the last data point in the loaded data and extends to the forecast range. The XperiFlow engine also recognizes and collects any actual data points following the date of deployment, bringing it in as actual values on the Prediction page of the Analysis section.

IMPORTANT: Before running a new prediction, you must load and transform any additional data sets being used for your model. Perform the steps in Upload and Associate Data Sets for the next data set. Verify rows in the transformation table are approximately the same as in the actual data file.

To run a new prediction:

  1. Click New Prediction. The New Prediction dialog box displays.

  2. Make selections from these options:

    • Retrain with Newest Data: Select Yes to retrain all models on any new data that has been uploaded to the project before making a prediction. For example, if the model learned from three years of historical data during the Pipeline section, and three months of new data has been uploaded during the Utilization phase, the model can now learn from three years and three months of data.

    • Existing Forecast Name: If a forecast name should be included and used to label the prediction run.

    • Forecast Name: Enter a name to label the prediction. This name displays in different consumption group export tables. This name must be unique for a given forecast start date. For example, you can’t have 2 editions of “Scenario 1” for the forecast start date of 1/1/2020, but you can have “Scenario 1” and “Scenario 2” for the forecast start date of 1/1/2020.

      TIP: Forecast names are a great way to link forecasts across multiple prediction runs. Prediction runs with the same forecast name are linked and can be visualized on the Prediction page.

    • Execution Time: Select Immediately to move the prediction job to the Job queue. Otherwise, select Schedule and use the date/time fields that display to set the hour, day, month, and year when you want the prediction job to run.

      NOTE: Scheduled time is based on local time specified in the Global Settings.

  3. Click Schedule.

Analyze Predictions

After running an initial prediction, the Predict page displays the following information.

Total Targets by Collection Lag: This chart in the Collection Lags pane visualizes the latest view of the collection lag for the target data set. Click New Snapshot to create a new snapshot for the data source, then click Refresh to refresh the page. This chart updates when you run a new prediction, snapshot, target data source update, or data set job.

Prediction Runs: This table in the Selected Predictions pane displays information about predictions that have been run or are scheduled to run, including status, queued time, creation time, start time, end time, and job ID. To delete a queued or scheduled prediction, select it and click .

NOTE: At least three prediction jobs must run to completion for Sensible Machine Learning to have enough data to produce a health score for the model. See Manage Model Health for more information.

Prediction Schedule: This chart in the Selected Predictions pane shows completed and scheduled predictions.

Click New Snapshot to take a snapshot of the collection lags for the target data source, then click Refresh to refresh the page.

Update a Scheduled Prediction

  1. Click Update below the Prediction Schedule pane.

  2. In the Update Prediction dialog box, use the Existing Forecast Name field to indicate whether you want to update the schedule for an existing forecast. If selecting Yes, select the name of the forecast to update from the Forecast Name drop-down. If selecting No, type the name of the forecast to update.

  3. Click Save. A message box informs you that the Prediction Call forecast name is modified.

  4. Click OK to close the message box and the Update Prediction dialog box.